SEEING RED
When was the last time you picked up a hand of one color? A long time ago, I bet. You could work out the chances on the back of an envelope. Your first card will be red with a probability of 1/2 (red or black); your second card will be red (given your first is red) with a probability of 25/51 (25 red cards left from the remainder of the pack of 51 cards); your third card will be red (given your first two are red) with a probability of 24/50… your 13th card will be red (given the other 12 are red) with a probability of 14/40. Multiply those fractions and you get… a very unlikely scenario!
| W | N | E | S |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1♠ | 5♦(1) | ||
| Pass | 6♦(2) | Dble(3) | Pass |
| Pass | Rdbl(4) |
(2) Partner’s bid is preemptive but slam looks a favorite given the probable short Spades opposite.
(3) Ostensibly for take-out but usually converted into penalties at such a high-level.
(4) The odds favor such redoubles when you think you will go down no more than one. If the slam goes one down, the redouble costs an extra 200 points; if the slam makes exactly, the redouble gains 290 points; if the slam makes plus one, the redouble gains 490 points
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